Calculator
Model your Substack revenue from conversion, price, and retention.
Turn free-subscriber counts into MRR, ARR, churn-adjusted growth, and twelve-month scenarios with assumptions you can actually edit.
- Separate monthly and annual plan assumptions expose how pricing mix changes ARR.
- Churn and new subscriber inputs make the forecast useful beyond day-one conversion math.
- The calculator shows planning ranges instead of a single fragile number.
Why Substack revenue math is mostly conversion plus retention
Most newsletter math looks exciting at the top of the funnel. The actual business is shaped by how many free subscribers upgrade, how many stay, and how your annual-plan mix affects cash flow.
That is why this model focuses on paid subscribers, churn drag, and future revenue rather than just multiplying subscribers by your sticker price.
What to use this forecast for
Use it for pricing decisions, launch planning, or understanding how much headroom exists before investing more time in newsletter growth. The point is not perfect prediction. It is better decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can this calculator handle free-to-paid Substack funnels?
Yes. The model starts from free subscribers, then applies conversion, annual-plan share, churn, and growth assumptions to estimate paid revenue.
Why include annual-plan share?
Because a newsletter with the same paid-subscriber count can look very different depending on how many readers choose annual billing and how much discount you offer.
Turn this finished article into video with Article Video Studio
Once this tool helps you shape the copy, headline, formatting, or angle, paste the same piece into Article Video Studio and generate a narrated video from it.